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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+3.77vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.47+3.57vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+7.45vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay0.56+9.09vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.78+7.18vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.62+2.79vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University0.59+5.80vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.32-2.16vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy2.52-3.70vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.65-1.34vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.37+2.74vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.58+1.09vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.20+3.19vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.50-8.71vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine1.06-4.24vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-5.30vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley1.02-5.91vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.66-0.26vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego0.31-4.81vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego0.43-6.31vs Predicted
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21California State University Monterey Bay0.56-7.91vs Predicted
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22California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-4.92vs Predicted
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24California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-6.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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5.57University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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10.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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13.09California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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8.79University of California at Berkeley1.620.0%1st Place
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12.8Santa Clara University0.590.0%1st Place
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5.84University of Hawaii2.320.1%1st Place
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5.3California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.1%1st Place
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8.66University of Hawaii1.650.1%1st Place
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13.74California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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13.09University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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16.19University of California at Santa Cruz-0.200.0%1st Place
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5.29Stanford University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.76University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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10.7University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
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17.74University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
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14.19University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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13.69University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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13.09California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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17.08California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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17.08California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 15.6% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 11.9% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Corey Lynch | 13.6% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Cook | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shiron Drusinsky | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Holly Tullo | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cullen Quine | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 17.2% | 32.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 17.4% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 17.4% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.