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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Minnesota2.13+0.67vs Predicted
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3University of Michigan0.51+0.97vs Predicted
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4Hope College0.34+0.15vs Predicted
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6University of Chicago-0.92+0.43vs Predicted
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7Indiana University-0.88-0.70vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University-0.29-2.69vs Predicted
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9University of Iowa-0.42-3.37vs Predicted
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10University of Notre Dame-0.09-5.01vs Predicted
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12University of Illinois-0.92-5.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.67University of Minnesota2.130.6%1st Place
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3.97University of Michigan0.510.1%1st Place
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4.15Hope College0.340.1%1st Place
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6.43University of Chicago-0.920.0%1st Place
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6.3Indiana University-0.880.0%1st Place
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5.31Northwestern University-0.290.1%1st Place
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5.63University of Iowa-0.420.0%1st Place
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4.99University of Notre Dame-0.090.1%1st Place
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6.55University of Illinois-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Kent | 58.5% | 25.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Davidson | 8.5% | 16.8% | 22.3% | 16.4% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Marowske | 8.8% | 17.1% | 16.0% | 16.9% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Moritz Matzner | 2.3% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 17.8% | 23.7% |
| Jonathan Ellefsen | 3.0% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 15.9% | 23.9% |
| Charles Tokowitz | 5.0% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 8.1% |
| Magdalena Franze-Soeln | 4.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 16.5% | 9.6% |
| Katherine Schneeberger | 6.3% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| Daniel Downie | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 19.2% | 25.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.