Race 4B

south-points-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Hana Zwick 10.1% 12.2% 12.7% 14.9% 17.6% 14.7% 10.3% 5.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Natalie Butler 4.4% 4.0% 6.0% 8.6% 9.8% 14.5% 17.5% 17.8% 13.3% 3.5% 0.6%
Michael Sanandajian 19.6% 20.0% 18.7% 16.3% 11.2% 8.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Hidley 12.3% 12.3% 14.6% 14.6% 17.0% 13.3% 9.0% 4.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Samuel Normington 20.9% 20.3% 17.6% 14.6% 11.6% 7.7% 5.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Samuel Armington 21.7% 20.8% 18.0% 15.4% 9.4% 7.4% 4.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
John Easum 2.6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.0% 4.7% 9.4% 11.1% 16.6% 27.6% 14.6% 3.9%
Rafael Melendez 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 7.0% 8.9% 11.3% 17.2% 17.2% 18.2% 7.8% 1.2%
Geoffrey Calderone 3.8% 2.8% 4.3% 4.2% 7.5% 9.7% 13.6% 22.5% 18.3% 10.3% 3.0%
Chance Sweat 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.7% 1.9% 3.5% 7.1% 10.8% 35.4% 37.0%
Katie Dodge 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% 3.4% 4.5% 6.6% 27.5% 54.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.