Race 1A

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sean Beaulieu 6.5% 6.2% 6.2% 7.9% 7.8% 8.9% 9.5% 10.5% 11.7% 10.3% 9.7% 4.8%
Hannah Polster 20.2% 17.7% 17.3% 13.4% 9.4% 7.3% 6.2% 4.3% 2.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0%
Rolfe Glover 9.3% 8.7% 8.6% 10.0% 9.4% 9.8% 11.0% 10.2% 9.9% 7.4% 4.0% 1.7%
Matt Wordell 2.9% 3.3% 2.9% 4.4% 6.4% 5.9% 8.1% 8.0% 10.2% 15.2% 17.3% 15.4%
Katharina (KB) Knapp 8.6% 12.2% 10.0% 10.1% 9.7% 10.4% 9.2% 10.1% 7.3% 6.6% 3.9% 1.9%
William Crary 12.6% 12.7% 10.8% 11.5% 11.5% 11.3% 8.4% 6.9% 6.3% 4.5% 2.6% 0.9%
Scott Goodrich 11.0% 10.5% 11.2% 9.6% 9.8% 9.8% 9.9% 10.0% 7.2% 6.0% 3.7% 1.3%
Camille Matile 8.4% 8.5% 8.9% 8.8% 8.7% 9.4% 8.2% 10.1% 9.6% 10.1% 6.2% 3.1%
Viktor Wettergren 5.8% 6.8% 8.3% 8.9% 9.3% 10.2% 10.7% 10.3% 10.1% 9.4% 8.1% 2.1%
Ryan Gershuny 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 4.1% 3.4% 5.1% 6.7% 9.2% 11.8% 20.6% 27.6%
Ryan Novak-Smith 2.2% 1.4% 1.9% 1.8% 3.1% 3.1% 4.3% 4.5% 7.0% 10.7% 19.8% 40.2%
Franco Bilik 9.9% 9.2% 11.0% 10.4% 10.8% 10.5% 9.4% 8.4% 9.5% 6.3% 3.6% 1.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.