Race 4A

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hannah Polster 20.8% 16.0% 18.6% 12.1% 10.5% 8.2% 4.9% 4.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
William Crary 11.8% 13.9% 10.9% 12.3% 11.8% 7.9% 9.8% 8.4% 6.2% 4.1% 2.5% 0.4%
Scott Goodrich 10.2% 10.3% 10.0% 8.9% 11.1% 11.2% 10.2% 8.6% 9.3% 6.0% 3.0% 1.2%
Sean Beaulieu 5.0% 6.8% 6.6% 9.3% 8.8% 8.4% 9.6% 8.7% 12.0% 10.8% 8.9% 5.1%
Rolfe Glover 9.2% 8.7% 9.6% 10.0% 10.0% 10.1% 9.2% 9.3% 7.6% 8.4% 6.0% 1.9%
Viktor Wettergren 7.3% 7.0% 6.6% 8.0% 7.7% 9.6% 10.2% 10.0% 11.1% 10.3% 8.3% 3.9%
Camille Matile 8.3% 8.7% 9.2% 8.9% 9.7% 8.0% 10.0% 10.1% 9.0% 9.5% 5.9% 2.7%
Matt Wordell 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0% 5.2% 6.7% 6.3% 8.5% 9.5% 14.3% 16.2% 16.7%
Ryan Novak-Smith 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 2.6% 4.2% 4.9% 6.6% 8.1% 10.6% 19.7% 36.1%
Franco Bilik 10.5% 10.4% 9.4% 11.8% 9.7% 10.7% 9.7% 8.5% 8.4% 5.6% 4.0% 1.3%
Katharina (KB) Knapp 8.7% 9.2% 10.4% 10.6% 9.5% 10.7% 9.7% 10.2% 8.5% 6.8% 4.0% 1.7%
Ryan Gershuny 2.3% 3.3% 2.6% 2.0% 3.4% 4.3% 5.5% 6.9% 7.4% 12.3% 21.1% 28.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.