Race 9A

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Alexander Tong 15.9% 13.7% 13.4% 13.7% 13.4% 8.5% 7.5% 6.9% 3.8% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2%
Hannah Polster 17.5% 19.1% 15.2% 12.2% 11.6% 8.5% 6.8% 4.9% 2.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Katharina (KB) Knapp 10.1% 7.8% 10.6% 8.9% 9.2% 10.0% 12.1% 11.2% 10.1% 7.3% 2.3% 0.4%
William Crary 9.8% 12.7% 11.1% 12.5% 12.1% 10.6% 9.9% 8.4% 6.5% 4.1% 2.2% 0.1%
Christopher Dawson 1.0% 2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 3.0% 4.6% 6.3% 7.8% 14.8% 40.2% 12.6%
Camille Matile 6.9% 7.9% 8.1% 7.2% 7.9% 11.0% 9.7% 10.7% 13.7% 11.5% 4.8% 0.6%
Viktor Wettergren 7.1% 6.9% 6.5% 8.4% 8.5% 9.5% 9.8% 10.5% 14.4% 11.0% 6.3% 1.1%
Scott Goodrich 11.2% 8.6% 10.1% 10.5% 10.0% 9.3% 11.7% 9.7% 8.8% 6.3% 3.3% 0.5%
Franco Bilik 8.5% 9.6% 10.9% 11.5% 10.5% 11.7% 10.7% 10.5% 7.7% 5.2% 3.2% 0.0%
John Silvestri 8.1% 7.2% 8.4% 8.1% 9.8% 10.3% 9.0% 12.7% 10.4% 10.5% 4.9% 0.6%
Carl Noble 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.9% 4.1% 10.9% 78.2%
Matt Wordell 3.4% 3.8% 2.7% 3.7% 4.0% 7.0% 7.6% 7.3% 12.6% 20.8% 21.4% 5.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.