Race 4B

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sarah Hermus 20.5% 17.9% 13.6% 16.3% 11.0% 7.8% 5.0% 3.9% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Lindsey Kennett 4.7% 5.0% 7.3% 7.8% 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 10.9% 11.5% 12.9% 9.5% 3.6%
Claire Huebner 9.1% 7.2% 8.6% 9.3% 8.7% 10.8% 11.9% 10.2% 11.2% 7.6% 4.2% 1.2%
Molly Pleskus 5.3% 7.3% 8.4% 8.1% 9.6% 11.0% 10.3% 10.3% 9.1% 10.7% 7.9% 2.0%
James Beatty 22.0% 19.7% 14.4% 11.2% 11.5% 7.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Sarah De Silva 8.5% 9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 10.9% 12.2% 10.7% 7.4% 9.0% 6.9% 4.1% 1.1%
Shannon Killian 6.1% 6.8% 6.9% 8.1% 8.0% 9.7% 8.9% 10.1% 11.8% 11.6% 8.1% 3.9%
Benjamin Craig 6.7% 7.0% 9.4% 7.8% 8.0% 8.6% 10.6% 11.2% 11.8% 9.4% 5.6% 3.9%
Jackson Hamilton 9.3% 11.1% 12.2% 11.5% 10.9% 10.2% 9.5% 10.5% 7.2% 4.5% 2.8% 0.3%
Joseph Dragon 2.8% 2.7% 3.1% 2.7% 4.0% 4.1% 7.1% 7.7% 8.5% 12.0% 25.3% 20.0%
Charlie Blasberg 4.2% 4.3% 5.9% 4.9% 6.6% 7.6% 9.7% 11.0% 10.3% 14.4% 14.8% 6.3%
Judas Taylor 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 2.2% 3.0% 4.4% 7.4% 16.7% 57.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.