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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.16+3.56vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.68+7.50vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.78+2.84vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.33+3.48vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.48+1.85vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.52+0.79vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.39+0.27vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.86+0.87vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.29-1.52vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.32+3.30vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.81-2.90vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.90-4.11vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.10-5.87vs Predicted
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15Cornell University-1.25+0.79vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.38-8.74vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.90-8.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56St. Mary's College of Maryland4.160.2%1st Place
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9.5U. S. Naval Academy2.680.0%1st Place
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5.84College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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7.48Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
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6.85Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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6.79Brown University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.27Old Dominion University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.87University of Vermont2.860.0%1st Place
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7.48University of South Florida3.290.1%1st Place
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13.3University of Michigan1.320.0%1st Place
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9.1Georgetown University2.810.0%1st Place
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8.89University of Rhode Island2.900.1%1st Place
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8.13Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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15.79Cornell University-1.250.0%1st Place
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7.26Harvard University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.91Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Morgan Watters | 17.6% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Burke | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 7.9% | 0.1% |
| Shannon Heausler | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Briana Provancha | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lipschitz | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Wilson | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 0.4% |
| Abby Featherstone | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Rachel Barch | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 53.9% | 6.7% |
| Lauren Burke | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 0.5% |
| Bethany Leonard | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 5.1% | 0.3% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bick | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 91.4% |
| Elizabeth Powers | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Emilie Mademann | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.