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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University4.19+2.44vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+5.11vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+5.11vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+2.83vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.44+0.50vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.93+1.51vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.33+2.55vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands2.77-0.19vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.92-1.49vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+0.19vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.53-2.04vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+1.50vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California2.47-3.86vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.92+0.13vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.49-6.05vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine1.06-2.25vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis1.94-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.44Stanford University4.190.2%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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8.11University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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6.83University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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5.5Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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7.51University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Southern California2.330.0%1st Place
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7.81California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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7.51Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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10.19University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.0%1st Place
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8.96Stanford University2.530.0%1st Place
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13.5University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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9.14University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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14.13University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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8.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.0%1st Place
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13.75University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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11.02University of California at Davis1.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Chung | 24.8% | 19.8% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Neil Stapleton | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 11.0% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Peter Wong | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Gregory Dair | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Ian Stokes | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Daniel Ron | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Ian Spilman | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 21.4% | 23.3% |
| John Coakley | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Ian Markowitz | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 19.4% | 33.8% |
| Cobi Allen | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Brian MacLean | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 19.6% | 26.3% |
| Antonio Rojas Mayol | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.