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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.33+11.01vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+5.55vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.72vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.89+1.81vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.25+3.22vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College2.82+4.15vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+2.36vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.92+1.39vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.20-0.64vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.95-0.46vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.51-3.70vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.42-4.28vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.19-4.17vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.44-6.58vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.52-0.17vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.31-0.50vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-3.05vs Predicted
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18Hampton University2.00-4.52vs Predicted
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19Fordham University1.72-4.70vs Predicted
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20University of Michigan-1.14-0.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.01U. S. Naval Academy2.330.0%1st Place
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7.55George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.72U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.81College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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8.22SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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10.15Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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9.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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9.39Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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8.36Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.54University of Rhode Island2.950.0%1st Place
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7.3Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.72Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.83Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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7.42Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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14.83Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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15.5University of Pennsylvania1.310.0%1st Place
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13.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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13.48Hampton University2.000.0%1st Place
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14.3Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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19.53University of Michigan-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Hughes | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 0.4% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Rees | 12.5% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Carolyn Smith | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| William Hawk | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Williford | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 22.3% | 2.0% |
| Jonathon Joyce | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 17.3% | 25.8% | 4.5% |
| Vincent Storino | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 11.4% | 2.3% |
| Cristina Ortiz Vivas | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 1.1% |
| Johanna Monro | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% |
| Zach Nerod | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 88.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.