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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.89+4.74vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.56vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.25+5.37vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.19+4.49vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.51+2.22vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.20+2.54vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.44+0.75vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.41-0.62vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.33+2.99vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-0.93vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.92-1.33vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.95-2.32vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.42-5.21vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81+0.03vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College2.82-4.98vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.72-1.67vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.31-1.51vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.52-2.95vs Predicted
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19Hampton University2.00-5.73vs Predicted
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20University of Michigan-1.14-0.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.74College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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6.56U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.37SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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8.49Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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7.22Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.54Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.75Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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7.38George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.99U. S. Naval Academy2.330.0%1st Place
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9.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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9.67Bowdoin College2.920.1%1st Place
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9.68University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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7.79Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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14.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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10.02Eckerd College2.820.1%1st Place
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14.33Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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15.49University of Pennsylvania1.310.0%1st Place
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15.05Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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13.27Hampton University2.000.0%1st Place
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19.55University of Michigan-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rees | 13.4% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Williford | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Axel Sly | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Hughes | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Carolyn Smith | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Hawk | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Polster | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Storino | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 1.8% |
| Andrew Schoene | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 1.7% |
| Jonathon Joyce | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 24.5% | 4.3% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 16.1% | 22.3% | 2.7% |
| Cristina Ortiz Vivas | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 0.7% |
| Zach Nerod | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 88.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.