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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.45vs Predicted
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2University of Buffalo2.44+2.28vs Predicted
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3Colgate University1.10+5.83vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University1.49+3.45vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.56+1.99vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.47+1.61vs Predicted
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7Penn State University1.35+0.91vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook0.94+1.22vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.94+0.55vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-2.41vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.09-2.04vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.25-0.15vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.87+1.83vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.18-5.35vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy0.51-4.06vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University-0.09-3.02vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology0.25-5.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.45Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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4.28University of Buffalo2.440.2%1st Place
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8.83Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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7.45Syracuse University1.490.1%1st Place
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6.99Webb Institute1.560.1%1st Place
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7.61Columbia University1.470.1%1st Place
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7.91Penn State University1.350.1%1st Place
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9.22SUNY Stony Brook0.940.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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7.59Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.1%1st Place
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8.96Princeton University1.090.1%1st Place
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11.85Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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14.83Rutgers University-0.870.0%1st Place
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8.65Queen's University1.180.0%1st Place
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10.94U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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12.98Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.9Rochester Institute of Technology0.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Howes | 24.8% | 19.3% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 17.2% | 16.4% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Casey Brown | 6.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| John Shanahan | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Rochon | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Julian Fraize | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Robert Whitaker | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
| Audrey Meehan | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 17.1% | 49.7% |
| Zachary Baum | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Michael Danko | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 5.6% |
| Brogan Savage | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| Daniel Christiani | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.