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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.47vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.56+5.03vs Predicted
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3Syracuse University1.49+4.38vs Predicted
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4Colgate University1.10+4.83vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy0.51+5.83vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo2.44-1.56vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.47+0.41vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.18+0.36vs Predicted
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9Penn State University1.35-0.98vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University-0.09+2.89vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook0.94-1.47vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology0.25-0.18vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.25-1.05vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.94-4.47vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-7.33vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-0.87-1.06vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.09-8.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.47Cornell University2.770.3%1st Place
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7.03Webb Institute1.560.1%1st Place
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7.38Syracuse University1.490.1%1st Place
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8.83Colgate University1.100.1%1st Place
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10.83U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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4.44University of Buffalo2.440.2%1st Place
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7.41Columbia University1.470.1%1st Place
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8.36Queen's University1.180.1%1st Place
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8.02Penn State University1.350.1%1st Place
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12.89Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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9.53SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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11.82Rochester Institute of Technology0.250.0%1st Place
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11.95Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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9.53University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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7.67Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.1%1st Place
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14.94Rutgers University-0.870.0%1st Place
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8.9Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Howes | 25.8% | 17.3% | 15.3% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Sara Klik | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Michael Danko | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
| Griffin Orr | 15.3% | 16.6% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Baum | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| John Shanahan | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Brogan Savage | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 1.5% |
| Daniel Christiani | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 10.0% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 8.3% |
| Tyler Rochon | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Julian Fraize | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Audrey Meehan | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 15.6% | 49.3% |
| Robert Whitaker | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.