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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+5.36vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.02+7.59vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.47+4.95vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.55+0.42vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.49+2.68vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+0.33vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+0.20vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.52-0.41vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.70-2.05vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.85+0.06vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.03-1.59vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-3.62vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.92-6.82vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.21-5.56vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.23+0.54vs Predicted
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16Williams College-0.03-0.08vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.09-1.25vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy-1.33-0.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.59U. S. Naval Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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7.95Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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4.42Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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7.68Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.59Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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6.95Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.06Cornell University2.850.0%1st Place
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9.41Brown University3.030.0%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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6.18Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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8.44Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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15.54Columbia University0.230.0%1st Place
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15.92Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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15.75Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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17.24U. S. Military Academy-1.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Landy | 18.1% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 5.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 3.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Williams | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Thies | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 26.2% | 31.4% | 22.2% | 8.8% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 16.1% | 28.7% | 31.7% | 13.6% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 22.2% | 27.6% | 28.0% | 11.7% |
| Charles Christianson | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 17.9% | 65.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.