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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.55+3.58vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+4.49vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.92+3.47vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+2.14vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.16vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.70+1.02vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.21+1.63vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.03+1.23vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College3.52-1.39vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.69vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.49-3.10vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.85-1.83vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.02-3.77vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.47-6.44vs Predicted
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15Williams College-0.03+0.91vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.09-0.23vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.23-1.43vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy-1.33-0.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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6.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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6.47Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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6.14Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.02Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.63Dartmouth College3.210.0%1st Place
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9.23Brown University3.030.0%1st Place
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7.61Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.9Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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10.17Cornell University2.850.0%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Naval Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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7.56Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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15.91Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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15.77Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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15.57Columbia University0.230.0%1st Place
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17.24U. S. Military Academy-1.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Landy | 15.5% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Astwood | 8.0% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Williams | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 18.4% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 18.2% | 27.4% | 31.0% | 13.4% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 19.4% | 31.2% | 26.5% | 12.3% |
| Catherine Thies | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 25.9% | 29.5% | 23.6% | 9.4% |
| Charles Christianson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 64.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.