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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.55+3.48vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.02+7.39vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.49+4.82vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.70+2.81vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+1.16vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.92+0.17vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College3.52+0.47vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-0.99vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.95-3.03vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.03-0.63vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.54-0.18vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-3.78vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.85-3.44vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.47-6.62vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.23+0.51vs Predicted
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16Williams College-0.03-0.11vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.09-1.27vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy-1.33-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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9.39U. S. Naval Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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7.82Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.81Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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6.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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6.17Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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7.47Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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7.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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5.97Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.37Brown University3.030.0%1st Place
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10.82Dartmouth College2.540.0%1st Place
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8.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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9.56Cornell University2.850.0%1st Place
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7.38Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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15.51Columbia University0.230.0%1st Place
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15.89Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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15.73Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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17.23U. S. Military Academy-1.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Landy | 15.9% | 15.6% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Astwood | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 9.9% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 9.1% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Margaret Kilvert | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 19.7% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.9% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Thies | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 25.7% | 30.7% | 22.2% | 8.8% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 15.9% | 28.9% | 31.3% | 13.6% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 21.8% | 27.7% | 27.6% | 11.7% |
| Charles Christianson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 17.9% | 65.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.