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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.55+3.15vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.47+5.61vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+4.96vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.52+3.53vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.49+2.39vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.70+1.05vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-0.81vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.95-2.07vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.54+1.83vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.85-0.36vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.92-4.74vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.02-2.88vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-5.84vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.03-4.74vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.23+0.05vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.09-0.70vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-1.33-0.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.15Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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7.61Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.53Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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7.39Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.05Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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5.93Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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10.83Dartmouth College2.540.0%1st Place
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9.64Cornell University2.850.0%1st Place
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6.26Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Naval Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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9.26Brown University3.030.0%1st Place
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15.05Columbia University0.230.0%1st Place
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15.3Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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16.57U. S. Military Academy-1.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Landy | 21.0% | 15.8% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Astwood | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 9.6% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Margaret Kilvert | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 22.2% | 8.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Thies | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 36.9% | 37.0% | 11.8% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 31.5% | 42.1% | 14.8% |
| Charles Christianson | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 7.0% | 17.6% | 73.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.