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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.87+7.29vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.10+2.33vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.80+5.60vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.13+3.19vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.79+0.13vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.93vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+0.78vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.77+0.48vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.49-3.02vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.82-1.46vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-2.98vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.63-6.10vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.79-4.68vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.35-4.46vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.81+0.77vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-0.51-0.60vs Predicted
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17Williams College-2.39+0.36vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy-1.54-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.29Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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4.33Yale University4.100.2%1st Place
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8.6Bowdoin College2.800.0%1st Place
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7.19Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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5.13Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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7.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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8.48Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.98Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.54Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.9U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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8.32Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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9.54Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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15.77Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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15.4Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
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17.36Williams College-2.390.0%1st Place
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16.44U. S. Military Academy-1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Johansson | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Kiss | 15.1% | 15.8% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Lyons | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Cook | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edmund Cooper | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Rolander | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Alexander | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 16.2% | 4.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 26.4% | 33.5% | 25.2% | 7.5% |
| Haley Collins | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 33.9% | 33.1% | 18.2% | 4.3% |
| Margaret Shilling | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 18.2% | 66.1% |
| Nina Tucker | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 11.7% | 22.3% | 38.4% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.