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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.10+3.47vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.79+3.26vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.13+4.45vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.77+4.41vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+2.78vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.82+2.33vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.63-1.38vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.49-1.98vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.13vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.80-1.41vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.79-2.47vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.87-3.56vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-3.16vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.35-4.41vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.81+1.03vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-0.51-0.34vs Predicted
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17Williams College-1.05-0.65vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy-1.54-1.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47Yale University4.100.2%1st Place
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5.26Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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7.45Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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8.41Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
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7.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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8.33Boston College2.820.0%1st Place
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5.62U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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6.02Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.59Bowdoin College2.800.1%1st Place
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8.53Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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8.44Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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9.59Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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16.03Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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15.66Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
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16.35Williams College-1.050.0%1st Place
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16.76U. S. Military Academy-1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Kiss | 16.3% | 16.3% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edmund Cooper | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 4.7% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Rolander | 9.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Lyons | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Alexander | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finneran | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 17.3% | 4.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 21.3% | 27.9% | 25.2% | 18.2% |
| Haley Collins | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 27.3% | 30.5% | 20.0% | 12.1% |
| Michael May | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 17.0% | 21.9% | 29.1% | 26.4% |
| Nina Tucker | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 25.6% | 43.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.