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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+2.26vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.74+1.76vs Predicted
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3Santa Clara University1.42+1.48vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.90-1.86vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.78+0.60vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.58+0.01vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38-0.77vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-1.49+1.50vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.14-2.10vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.95-1.26vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-1.40-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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3.76University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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4.48Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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2.14Stanford University2.900.4%1st Place
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5.6University of Southern California0.780.1%1st Place
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6.01University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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6.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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9.5University of California at Irvine-1.490.0%1st Place
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6.9California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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8.74University of California at Santa Cruz-0.950.0%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Berkeley-1.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 17.5% | 20.9% | 19.8% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 13.8% | 15.9% | 20.4% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 18.3% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Julia Lambert | 40.6% | 28.5% | 16.4% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 5.5% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 14.5% | 16.8% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Sarah Wyman | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 16.3% | 16.5% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 16.8% | 16.2% | 12.1% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
| Addison Whittet | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 26.1% | 39.2% |
| Alicia Ward | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 19.2% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 3.2% |
| Maille Kennedy | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 12.8% | 19.3% | 26.6% | 20.0% |
| Ekaterina Goncharova | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 26.2% | 35.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.