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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+2.34vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.90+0.06vs Predicted
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3California State University Monterey Bay0.14+3.97vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.74-0.08vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38+1.32vs Predicted
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6Santa Clara University1.42-1.60vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-1.40+2.28vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.78-2.49vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.95-0.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.58-4.07vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-1.49-2.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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2.06Stanford University2.900.4%1st Place
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6.97California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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3.92University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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6.32Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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4.4Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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9.28University of California at Berkeley-1.400.0%1st Place
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5.51University of Southern California0.780.1%1st Place
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8.79University of California at Santa Cruz-0.950.0%1st Place
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5.93University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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9.48University of California at Irvine-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 16.2% | 20.9% | 19.8% | 17.3% | 13.9% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Lambert | 43.9% | 27.5% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 20.5% | 15.3% | 10.6% | 2.5% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 11.4% | 16.2% | 17.8% | 17.3% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 15.1% | 18.5% | 13.4% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ekaterina Goncharova | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 16.9% | 25.1% | 35.3% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 15.6% | 16.0% | 15.3% | 11.6% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Maille Kennedy | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 18.9% | 26.4% | 21.9% |
| Sarah Wyman | 3.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 16.7% | 13.4% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 0.7% |
| Addison Whittet | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 25.4% | 38.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.