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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.90+1.11vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.74+1.76vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.78+2.74vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-0.64vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.58+0.01vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38-0.54vs Predicted
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8Santa Clara University1.42-3.76vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.14-2.24vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-1.40-0.59vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.95-2.28vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-1.49-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.11Stanford University2.900.4%1st Place
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3.76University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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5.74University of Southern California0.780.1%1st Place
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3.36University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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6.01University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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6.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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4.24Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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6.76California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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9.41University of California at Berkeley-1.400.0%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Santa Cruz-0.950.0%1st Place
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9.44University of California at Irvine-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Lambert | 41.2% | 27.7% | 17.2% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 13.2% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 18.5% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 17.9% | 16.6% | 13.7% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Ginger Luckey | 16.9% | 19.9% | 20.3% | 17.7% | 12.0% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 15.6% | 16.9% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 0.6% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 15.2% | 17.8% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 11.4% | 12.6% | 15.1% | 16.8% | 16.5% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 17.8% | 15.4% | 15.9% | 8.9% | 2.0% |
| Ekaterina Goncharova | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 23.8% | 39.3% |
| Maille Kennedy | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 20.6% | 27.6% | 18.0% |
| Addison Whittet | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 16.7% | 24.6% | 38.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.