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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.41+2.29vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii0.47+7.58vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.50+2.94vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.08+3.31vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+5.99vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.05+1.33vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.60-1.12vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii0.12+2.51vs Predicted
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9Unknown School0.61-0.01vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.83-1.38vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.07-3.62vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+0.75vs Predicted
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13Unknown School0.03-1.79vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California0.90-6.73vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.86-6.88vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.13-0.51vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-1.41-1.85vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-1.34-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.29University of Hawaii2.4124.9%1st Place
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9.58University of Hawaii0.473.4%1st Place
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5.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.5010.2%1st Place
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7.31University of California at Santa Barbara1.086.2%1st Place
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10.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.831.9%1st Place
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7.33University of Hawaii1.057.6%1st Place
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5.88University of South Florida1.6010.1%1st Place
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10.51University of Hawaii0.123.0%1st Place
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8.99Unknown School0.614.4%1st Place
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8.62University of South Florida0.834.8%1st Place
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7.38University of South Florida1.077.0%1st Place
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12.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.261.3%1st Place
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11.21Unknown School0.032.3%1st Place
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7.27University of Southern California0.905.9%1st Place
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8.12University of California at Berkeley0.865.3%1st Place
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15.49University of California at San Diego-1.130.7%1st Place
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15.15University of California at Davis-1.410.7%1st Place
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15.21Rutgers University-1.340.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 24.9% | 21.9% | 16.8% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Malia Johnson | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Julian Skerrett | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Engebretson | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Maggie Rickman | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Grace Jones | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kailey Warrior | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 5.5% |
| Matt Young | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 21.6% | 34.6% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 23.3% | 27.4% |
| Andrew Martin | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 22.6% | 27.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.