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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.08+4.68vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.73+5.03vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.44+5.19vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.67+3.42vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25+3.80vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+3.18vs Predicted
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7Boston College4.12-1.30vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.96+1.86vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.41-0.51vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34-1.52vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-1.16vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University2.38+0.14vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-7.11vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.11-0.86vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-4.03vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.89-2.24vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.41-8.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.68Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.03Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.19Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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7.42Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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8.8Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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9.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.0%1st Place
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5.7Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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9.86Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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8.49University of Vermont3.410.0%1st Place
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8.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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9.84Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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12.14Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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13.14University of Wisconsin2.110.0%1st Place
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10.97University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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13.76SUNY Maritime College1.890.0%1st Place
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8.43Tufts University3.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 13.3% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Colin MURPHY | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Augie Dale | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| Eddie Cox | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Raul Rios | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% |
| Nate Jermain | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% |
| Daniel Lawless | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 17.8% | 13.3% |
| Avery Fanning | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Soren Walljasper | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 15.8% | 25.5% |
| Sterling Henken | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% |
| John Nothacker | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 16.0% | 32.6% |
| Dan Nickerson | 4.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.