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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+4.70vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.08+3.72vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+5.62vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.73+3.17vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.12+0.58vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.41+2.47vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.67+0.37vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.96+1.90vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.25+0.13vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.44-1.94vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University2.38+1.23vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.05-2.31vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.41-4.55vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.11-0.86vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-6.00vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-4.97vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.89-3.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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5.72Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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7.17Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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5.58Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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7.37Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.9Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.13Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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8.06Dartmouth College3.440.0%1st Place
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12.23Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.69Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.45Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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13.14University of Wisconsin2.110.0%1st Place
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9.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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11.03University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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13.73SUNY Maritime College1.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Fanning | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Barrows | 11.9% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Connor Corgard | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Raul Rios | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Augie Dale | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 4.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Colin MURPHY | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Daniel Lawless | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Soren Walljasper | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 16.9% | 24.1% |
| Eddie Cox | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Sterling Henken | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.1% |
| John Nothacker | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 15.8% | 33.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.