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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.71+8.70vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.14+10.14vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.61+7.24vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.50+2.24vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.43+1.53vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+0.49vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.21+4.53vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.19-0.57vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.25-1.75vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+1.95vs Predicted
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112.75-1.56vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.90-2.92vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-3.25vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.73-4.85vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.99-6.73vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.98-7.50vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.87-3.99vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.40-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.7Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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12.14SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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10.24Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
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6.24Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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6.53Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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11.53University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.0%1st Place
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7.43Boston College3.190.1%1st Place
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7.25Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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11.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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9.442.750.1%1st Place
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9.08Tufts University2.900.0%1st Place
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9.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.1%1st Place
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9.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.730.1%1st Place
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8.27University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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8.5Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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13.01Jacksonville University1.870.0%1st Place
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14.32University of Wisconsin1.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Florio | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 2.4% |
| Peter Maes | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.1% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Marek Zaleski | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Dana Rohde | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Schiff | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% |
| Maxwell Simmons | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% |
| Erik Weis | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| James Moody | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Thomas Galster | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| Laura Dunphy | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Megan Yeigh | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Peter Hidley | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 18.1% |
| Amelia Shankwitz | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 14.9% | 33.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.