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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.40+3.72vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii0.12+7.76vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida0.77+4.69vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.50+1.30vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.08+1.46vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.07+0.63vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+3.49vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida0.83+0.12vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii0.47-0.43vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii0.59-1.63vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii0.13-0.95vs Predicted
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12Unknown School0.03-1.55vs Predicted
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13Unknown School0.61-4.74vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.58-5.59vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-2.70vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-1.34-1.15vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-2.05-1.40vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-1.41-3.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72University of Southern California1.4015.7%1st Place
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9.76University of Hawaii0.124.3%1st Place
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7.69University of South Florida0.776.9%1st Place
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5.3University of California at Santa Barbara1.5013.2%1st Place
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6.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.089.2%1st Place
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6.63University of South Florida1.078.8%1st Place
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10.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.833.3%1st Place
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8.12University of South Florida0.836.0%1st Place
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8.57University of Hawaii0.475.2%1st Place
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8.37University of Hawaii0.595.9%1st Place
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10.05University of Hawaii0.133.8%1st Place
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10.45Unknown School0.032.9%1st Place
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8.26Unknown School0.616.2%1st Place
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8.41University of California at Berkeley0.584.7%1st Place
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12.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.262.1%1st Place
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14.85Rutgers University-1.340.7%1st Place
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15.6University of California at San Diego-2.050.5%1st Place
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14.97University of California at Davis-1.410.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 15.7% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Ghislaine van Empel | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Julian Skerrett | 13.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Engebretson | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kailey Warrior | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Kisling | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Grace Jones | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Malia Johnson | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Gardiner Van Ness | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Zach Brennan | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Matt Young | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Maggie Rickman | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Michael McCulloch | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Florence Duff | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 5.9% |
| Andrew Martin | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 23.2% | 23.6% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 22.0% | 36.6% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 22.4% | 27.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.