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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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12.75+7.71vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.98+5.92vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+3.21vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.50+2.11vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.25+1.84vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.61+3.61vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.43-0.72vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.99-0.18vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+2.28vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.19-2.95vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.40+2.73vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.14-0.81vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.87-0.68vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.90-5.55vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.71-5.96vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-6.57vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.21-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.712.750.1%1st Place
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7.92Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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6.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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6.11Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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6.84Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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9.61Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
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6.28Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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7.82University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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11.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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7.05Boston College3.190.1%1st Place
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13.73University of Wisconsin1.400.0%1st Place
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11.19SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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12.32Jacksonville University1.870.0%1st Place
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8.45Tufts University2.900.1%1st Place
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9.04Connecticut College2.710.1%1st Place
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9.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
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11.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Weis | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Stewart Draheim | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Dana Rohde | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 11.8% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Marek Zaleski | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Megan Yeigh | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 9.7% |
| Maxwell Simmons | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Amelia Shankwitz | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 37.9% |
| Peter Maes | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.7% |
| Peter Hidley | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 17.9% |
| James Moody | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Walter Florio | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% |
| Thomas Galster | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Joseph Schiff | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.