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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.43+5.22vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.21+5.11vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.99+5.05vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.25+3.17vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.98+2.92vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+0.48vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+2.59vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.19-0.79vs Predicted
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92.75+0.19vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.61-0.52vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.41vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-0.86vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.90-4.45vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.87-1.58vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.40-1.25vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University3.50-9.83vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.21-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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7.11Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.05University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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7.17Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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7.92Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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6.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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9.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
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7.21Boston College3.190.1%1st Place
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9.192.750.0%1st Place
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9.48Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
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11.41SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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8.55Tufts University2.900.1%1st Place
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12.42Jacksonville University1.870.0%1st Place
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13.75University of Wisconsin1.400.0%1st Place
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6.17Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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11.14University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marek Zaleski | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Megan Yeigh | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Stewart Draheim | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Dana Rohde | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Galster | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| Maxwell Simmons | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Erik Weis | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| Peter Maes | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 11.2% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 8.6% |
| James Moody | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Peter Hidley | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 18.2% |
| Amelia Shankwitz | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 36.3% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 8.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Schiff | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.