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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.21+5.99vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.43+4.34vs Predicted
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32.75+6.03vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.19+3.35vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+1.16vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.50+0.30vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.90+1.47vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.25-1.08vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.61+0.72vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.29vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.21+0.20vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.99-3.96vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.98-4.82vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-2.64vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.87-2.76vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.40-2.17vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-7.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.99Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.34Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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9.032.750.1%1st Place
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7.35Boston College3.190.1%1st Place
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6.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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6.3Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.47Tufts University2.900.1%1st Place
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6.92Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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9.72Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
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11.29SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.2University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.0%1st Place
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8.04University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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8.18Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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11.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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12.24Jacksonville University1.870.0%1st Place
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13.83University of Wisconsin1.400.0%1st Place
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9.56St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh MacGillivray | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Marek Zaleski | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Erik Weis | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% |
| Maxwell Simmons | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Dana Rohde | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| James Moody | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% |
| Peter Maes | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.5% |
| Joseph Schiff | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 10.0% |
| Megan Yeigh | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% |
| Peter Hidley | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| Amelia Shankwitz | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 34.8% |
| Thomas Galster | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.