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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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12.75+7.75vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.21+5.14vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.43+3.41vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+7.20vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.25+1.92vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.50+0.32vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.98+1.12vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.19-0.82vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.87+3.50vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.90-1.72vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-4.49vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-2.51vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.99-4.83vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.61-4.21vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.40-1.29vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.21-4.84vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.14-5.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.752.750.1%1st Place
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7.14Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.41Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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11.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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6.92Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.32Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.12Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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7.18Boston College3.190.1%1st Place
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12.5Jacksonville University1.870.0%1st Place
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8.28Tufts University2.900.1%1st Place
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6.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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9.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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9.79Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
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13.71University of Wisconsin1.400.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.0%1st Place
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11.35SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Weis | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Marek Zaleski | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Maxwell Simmons | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Peter Hidley | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 17.6% | 17.3% |
| James Moody | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Dana Rohde | 11.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Galster | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Megan Yeigh | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
| Amelia Shankwitz | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 36.1% |
| Joseph Schiff | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% |
| Peter Maes | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.