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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.43+5.18vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.19+5.17vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.61+6.55vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.98+4.14vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+6.01vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.14+5.55vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.87+5.31vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.25-1.09vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.21-1.63vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-0.61vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.50-4.69vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-5.63vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.90-4.43vs Predicted
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142.75-4.87vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.21-3.90vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.99-7.92vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.40-3.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.18Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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7.17Boston College3.190.1%1st Place
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9.55Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
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8.14Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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11.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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11.55SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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12.31Jacksonville University1.870.0%1st Place
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6.91Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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7.37Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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9.39St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
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6.31Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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8.57Tufts University2.900.1%1st Place
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9.132.750.1%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.0%1st Place
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8.08University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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13.87University of Wisconsin1.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marek Zaleski | 12.1% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Simmons | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Peter Maes | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 12.7% |
| Peter Hidley | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 17.0% | 15.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Galster | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Dana Rohde | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| James Moody | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Erik Weis | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Joseph Schiff | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.1% |
| Megan Yeigh | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Amelia Shankwitz | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 37.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.