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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.47+3.19vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.31+2.53vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.29+5.09vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida0.99+1.65vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida0.45+2.18vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida0.77+0.18vs Predicted
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7Unknown School-1.07+5.75vs Predicted
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8University of Victoria0.13+0.52vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii0.51-1.85vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51+0.87vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California-0.12-1.54vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.87+0.32vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-0.44vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara0.06-5.61vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.84-3.22vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-4.01vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-2.15-1.11vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-1.34-4.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19University of Hawaii1.4717.0%1st Place
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4.53University of Hawaii1.3116.3%1st Place
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8.09University of Hawaii0.295.0%1st Place
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5.65University of South Florida0.9910.8%1st Place
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7.18University of South Florida0.457.0%1st Place
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6.18University of South Florida0.779.2%1st Place
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12.75Unknown School-1.071.6%1st Place
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8.52University of Victoria0.134.7%1st Place
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7.15University of Hawaii0.517.5%1st Place
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10.87University of California at Santa Barbara-0.512.8%1st Place
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9.46University of Southern California-0.124.2%1st Place
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12.32University of California at San Diego-0.871.2%1st Place
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12.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.001.8%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Santa Barbara0.065.4%1st Place
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11.78University of California at Berkeley-0.841.9%1st Place
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11.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.862.2%1st Place
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15.89University of California at Davis-2.150.4%1st Place
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13.51Rutgers University-1.340.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arden Rathkopf | 17.0% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett McAvoy | 16.3% | 15.7% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kalea Woodard | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sara Menesale | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ghislaine van Empel | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aevyn Jackson | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 7.7% |
| Nathan Lemke | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Martha Schuessler | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Lara Granucci | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Alex Bussey | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 5.8% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 8.2% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 4.5% |
| Noa Brassfield | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 5.5% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 50.2% |
| Andrew Martin | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 18.2% | 14.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.