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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+5.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.82vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+4.33vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University5.19+0.73vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.43+2.40vs Predicted
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6Boston University4.07+2.83vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+2.38vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.76+1.95vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.50+2.11vs Predicted
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10Harvard University4.17-1.35vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston4.34-3.11vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.50-0.59vs Predicted
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13Washington College3.65-2.64vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy4.34-6.46vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.33-3.32vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.77-2.16vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia3.01-3.97vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.32-3.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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7.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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4.73Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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7.4Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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8.83Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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9.38St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.0%1st Place
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9.95Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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11.11Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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8.65Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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7.89College of Charleston4.340.1%1st Place
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11.41Yale University3.500.0%1st Place
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10.36Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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7.54U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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11.68University of Vermont3.330.0%1st Place
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13.84Eckerd College2.770.0%1st Place
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13.03University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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14.92Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Blouin | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 17.1% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Anne Haeger | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ben Greenfield | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| Nick Dugdale | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 4.0% |
| John Stokes | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Jackson Benvenutti | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Claire Dennis | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| Robert Vann | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Joseph Kelleher | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% |
| Jeff Hahl | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 15.9% | 21.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| Blair Davis | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 17.9% | 35.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.