← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+5.64vs Predicted
-
2College of Charleston3.65+6.41vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University3.49+6.18vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University3.47+5.19vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.57vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+3.85vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University3.25+3.19vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.73vs Predicted
-
9Roger Williams University3.73-1.10vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University3.49-0.95vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College3.25-1.90vs Predicted
-
13Bowdoin College3.18-2.12vs Predicted
-
14Eckerd College2.80-2.11vs Predicted
-
15Old Dominion University3.82-7.17vs Predicted
-
16Stanford University3.80-8.31vs Predicted
-
17Connecticut College3.23-6.88vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-6.57vs Predicted
-
19Michigan Technological University-0.05-0.46vs Predicted
-
20Cornell University2.77-8.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
-
8.41College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
-
9.18Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.19Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
-
8.57U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
9.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
-
10.19Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
-
10.73University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
-
7.9Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
-
9.05George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
-
10.1SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
-
10.88Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
-
11.89Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
-
7.83Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
7.69Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
-
10.12Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
-
11.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
-
18.54Michigan Technological University-0.050.0%1st Place
-
11.8Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Fanning | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jake Reynolds | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Scott Barbano | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 0.9% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 0.7% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 1.1% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Zachary Hill | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 0.6% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 0.9% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 1.7% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Hans Henken | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 1.5% |
| Joel Florek | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 88.9% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.