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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.65+7.48vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.25+8.18vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+3.68vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.16+6.54vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.49+4.35vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.82+1.63vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.23+3.28vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.80+0.04vs Predicted
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9George Washington University3.49-0.08vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-0.18vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.67-2.75vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.47-2.45vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.77vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.18-4.43vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.73-8.00vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College3.25-7.01vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.80-5.99vs Predicted
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19Cornell University2.77-6.91vs Predicted
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20Michigan Technological University-0.05-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.48College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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10.18Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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6.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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10.54University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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9.35Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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7.63Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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10.28Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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8.04Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.92George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.55Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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10.57Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.0Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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9.99SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
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12.01Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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12.09Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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18.37Michigan Technological University-0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reynolds | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 0.7% |
| Avery Fanning | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 0.8% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 0.7% |
| Hans Henken | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Scott Barbano | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 1.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 0.8% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Zachary Hill | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 0.5% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 16.1% | 2.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 2.5% |
| Joel Florek | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 87.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.