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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+11.61vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.49+7.50vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.00vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+2.96vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+3.01vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College2.80+6.73vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.30vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.23+2.44vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.65-0.34vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.25+0.65vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.80-2.76vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.18-0.86vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.47-3.06vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-1.55vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.67-6.29vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-7.33vs Predicted
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17George Washington University3.49-7.69vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University3.73-9.48vs Predicted
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19SUNY Maritime College1.89-3.16vs Predicted
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20Michigan Technological University-0.05-0.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.61Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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9.5Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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6.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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8.01Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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12.73Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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11.3University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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10.44Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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8.66College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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10.65Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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8.24Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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11.14Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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9.94Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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12.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.67St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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9.31George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.52Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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15.84SUNY Maritime College1.890.0%1st Place
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19.33Michigan Technological University-0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Howes | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 1.4% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 1.9% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 0.7% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Jake Reynolds | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Hans Henken | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 0.3% |
| Scott Barbano | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Max Neubelt | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Connor Corgard | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| John Nothacker | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 36.1% | 8.5% |
| Joel Florek | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 7.0% | 83.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.