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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+7.06vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.16+8.98vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.65+5.93vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.18+6.89vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+1.91vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.47+3.68vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.82+1.34vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-1.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.43vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College3.23+0.69vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.49-1.40vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+0.80vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.77+0.01vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.89+1.89vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.73-6.53vs Predicted
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16Fordham University3.25-5.44vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-8.52vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.80-5.43vs Predicted
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19George Washington University3.49-9.53vs Predicted
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20Michigan Technological University-0.05-0.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.06Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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10.98University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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8.93College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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10.89Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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6.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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9.68Tufts University3.470.0%1st Place
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8.34Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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8.57U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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10.69Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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9.6Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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12.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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13.01Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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15.89SUNY Maritime College1.890.0%1st Place
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8.47Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.56Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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8.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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12.57Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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9.47George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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19.32Michigan Technological University-0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 0.5% |
| Jake Reynolds | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Avery Fanning | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Esteban Forrer | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 1.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 1.7% |
| John Nothacker | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 33.9% | 9.5% |
| Connor Corgard | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Adam | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 1.1% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Joel Florek | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 83.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.