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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.63+6.60vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.52+6.00vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.21+6.53vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38+9.08vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.20+4.33vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.10+3.97vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.74+4.84vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.87+2.73vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.90+1.75vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.44-1.61vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-2.27vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.73-4.63vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60-4.93vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.79-7.09vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.14-1.08vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.77-4.66vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-3.27vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College3.52-9.88vs Predicted
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19Michigan Technological University-0.16+0.12vs Predicted
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20U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.6Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
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8.0Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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9.53Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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13.08Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.33Old Dominion University3.200.0%1st Place
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9.97George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
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11.84Eckerd College2.740.0%1st Place
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10.73University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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10.75Tufts University2.900.0%1st Place
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8.39U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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8.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.37College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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8.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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6.91Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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13.92SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.34Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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13.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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8.12Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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19.12Michigan Technological University-0.160.0%1st Place
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13.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily Katz | 7.8% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 3.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Geoffrey Nelson | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 1.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| James Moody | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
| Michael Popp | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Davidson | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Chase Quinn | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Peter Maes | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 18.3% | 5.3% |
| Henry Vogel | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 3.7% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nick Lane | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 7.1% | 80.6% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.