← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University3.79+5.90vs Predicted
-
2Eckerd College2.74+9.60vs Predicted
-
3Bowdoin College3.52+5.21vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+3.73vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania2.87+5.90vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University3.20+3.52vs Predicted
-
7Stanford University3.63+0.89vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University3.10+1.69vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College3.21+0.36vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.34vs Predicted
-
11College of Charleston3.73-3.76vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University3.52-3.78vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.34vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Naval Academy3.44-5.68vs Predicted
-
15Tufts University2.90-4.18vs Predicted
-
16Cornell University2.38-2.99vs Predicted
-
17Roger Williams University2.77-5.77vs Predicted
-
18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-4.10vs Predicted
-
19U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-5.77vs Predicted
-
20Michigan Technological University-0.16-0.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.9Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
-
11.6Eckerd College2.740.0%1st Place
-
8.21Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
-
7.73St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
-
10.9University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
-
9.52Old Dominion University3.200.0%1st Place
-
7.89Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
-
9.69George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
-
9.36Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
-
8.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
-
7.24College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
-
8.22Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
-
14.34SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
-
8.32U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
-
10.82Tufts University2.900.0%1st Place
-
13.01Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
-
11.23Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
-
13.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
-
13.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
-
19.22Michigan Technological University-0.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mollerus | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Geoffrey Nelson | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 1.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Chase Quinn | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Lily Katz | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Davidson | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Peter Maes | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 19.6% | 5.2% |
| Michael Popp | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| James Moody | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 0.1% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 1.9% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 1.4% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 18.8% | 3.1% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 2.4% |
| Nick Lane | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 82.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.