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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.79+5.91vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.73+5.18vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.87+8.11vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.20+5.45vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.10+4.85vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.63+1.65vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.44+1.65vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+0.48vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60-1.36vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.52-1.93vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.74+0.60vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.52-3.73vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+1.15vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College3.21-4.61vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.90-4.21vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.06vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.38-4.10vs Predicted
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18Michigan Technological University-0.16+1.19vs Predicted
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19U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-5.76vs Predicted
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20Roger Williams University2.77-8.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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7.18College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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11.11University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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9.45Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.85George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.65Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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8.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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8.07Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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11.6Eckerd College2.740.0%1st Place
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8.27Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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14.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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9.39Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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10.79Tufts University2.900.0%1st Place
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13.94SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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12.9Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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19.19Michigan Technological University-0.160.0%1st Place
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13.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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11.53Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mollerus | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Davidson | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 4.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 1.1% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Lily Katz | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Chase Quinn | 6.7% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Will Holz | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Nelson | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.2% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 19.5% | 3.6% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| James Moody | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Peter Maes | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 18.2% | 3.9% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% |
| Nick Lane | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 6.6% | 82.1% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 2.5% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.