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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.87+9.91vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+5.69vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.77+8.43vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.74+7.53vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.44+3.33vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+7.90vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.79+0.17vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.52-0.12vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+4.29vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.20-0.57vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.63-3.28vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.73-4.66vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.10-2.74vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-1.03vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.21-5.55vs Predicted
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16Fordham University3.52-8.01vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-8.52vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.90-7.07vs Predicted
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19Michigan Technological University-0.16+0.14vs Predicted
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20SUNY Maritime College2.14-5.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.91University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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7.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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11.43Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.53Eckerd College2.740.0%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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13.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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7.17Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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7.88Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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13.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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9.43Old Dominion University3.200.0%1st Place
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7.72Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
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7.34College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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10.26George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
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12.97Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.45Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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7.99Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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10.93Tufts University2.900.0%1st Place
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19.14Michigan Technological University-0.160.0%1st Place
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14.15SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Gallagher | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Chase Quinn | 9.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 1.2% |
| Geoffrey Nelson | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 1.3% |
| Michael Popp | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 17.5% | 3.5% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Dylan Finneran | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 3.2% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Lily Katz | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Davidson | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 2.1% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Will Holz | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| James Moody | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 0.5% |
| Nick Lane | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 81.8% |
| Peter Maes | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 18.1% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.