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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.73+6.15vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.52+6.05vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.20+6.56vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.63+3.64vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.77+6.30vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.79+1.01vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+1.04vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.74+3.34vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38+4.00vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College3.21-0.59vs Predicted
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11Fordham University3.52-2.87vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.87-0.83vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+1.17vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.90-3.26vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-6.35vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.73vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.44-8.74vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.14-3.96vs Predicted
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19George Washington University3.10-9.16vs Predicted
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20Michigan Technological University-0.16-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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8.05Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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9.56Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.64Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
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11.3Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.01Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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8.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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11.34Eckerd College2.740.0%1st Place
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13.0Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.41Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.13Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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11.17University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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14.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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10.74Tufts University2.900.0%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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13.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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14.04SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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9.84George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
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19.23Michigan Technological University-0.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Davidson | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Lily Katz | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Chase Quinn | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Nelson | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 0.9% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 1.5% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Will Holz | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Drew Gallagher | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 0.8% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 18.4% | 4.4% |
| James Moody | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 0.3% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 2.3% |
| Michael Popp | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Peter Maes | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 19.6% | 3.8% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Nick Lane | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 83.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.