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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.63+6.55vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.44+6.40vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+10.89vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.79+2.97vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.52+3.02vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.20+3.53vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.90+4.13vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.21+1.12vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60-1.39vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.34vs Predicted
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11George Washington University3.10-1.01vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.77-0.33vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.73-5.43vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-1.02vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.52-6.91vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.78vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.87-6.18vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.14-3.89vs Predicted
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19Eckerd College2.74-7.54vs Predicted
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20Michigan Technological University-0.16-0.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.55Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
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8.4U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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13.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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6.97Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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8.02Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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9.53Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.13Tufts University2.900.0%1st Place
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9.12Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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7.61St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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8.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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9.99George Washington University3.100.1%1st Place
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11.67Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.57College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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12.98Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.09Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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13.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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10.82University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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14.11SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.46Eckerd College2.740.0%1st Place
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19.21Michigan Technological University-0.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily Katz | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 18.2% | 4.7% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| James Moody | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Chase Quinn | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Roger Dorr | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Davidson | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% |
| Will Holz | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 2.1% |
| Drew Gallagher | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Peter Maes | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 19.0% | 3.9% |
| Geoffrey Nelson | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 0.6% |
| Nick Lane | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 82.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.