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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+3.72vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.03+1.65vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.47+2.00vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.75+0.42vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.43+0.24vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.96-2.02vs Predicted
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7Wesleyan University0.55+2.40vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.89-1.59vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy1.14-0.65vs Predicted
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10Williams College-0.03+0.82vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.65-3.86vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-0.82vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.35-1.73vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-2.06-0.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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3.65Brown University3.030.2%1st Place
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5.0Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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4.42Dartmouth College2.750.1%1st Place
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5.24Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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3.98Connecticut College2.960.2%1st Place
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9.4Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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6.41SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Military Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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10.82Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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7.14Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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11.18SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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11.27University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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13.41Rochester Institute of Technology-2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Brown | 11.6% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 19.7% | 19.3% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 11.5% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Erik Weis | 12.4% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 17.2% | 15.3% | 14.8% | 15.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 18.8% | 16.6% | 6.4% | 1.6% |
| John Nothacker | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schmitt | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 16.6% | 12.7% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Jorge Castro | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 18.2% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 6.6% |
| Adam DeVita | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 10.0% | 17.9% | 21.0% | 26.6% | 8.2% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 21.7% | 29.1% | 9.1% |
| Robert Ichiyama | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 13.4% | 74.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.