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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.47+2.99vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii0.51+4.84vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.31+1.30vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii0.29+3.58vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida0.52+1.74vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida0.16+2.19vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.12+2.01vs Predicted
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8University of Victoria0.13+0.04vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida0.99-3.53vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara0.06-1.81vs Predicted
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11Unknown School-1.07+1.10vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.40-0.91vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-0.59vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-2.56vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51-4.80vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.50-2.34vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-2.15-1.67vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-2.83-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99University of Hawaii1.4719.8%1st Place
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6.84University of Hawaii0.517.4%1st Place
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4.3University of Hawaii1.3116.5%1st Place
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7.58University of Hawaii0.295.9%1st Place
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6.74University of South Florida0.527.6%1st Place
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8.19University of South Florida0.165.2%1st Place
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9.01University of Southern California-0.123.2%1st Place
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8.04University of Victoria0.135.5%1st Place
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5.47University of South Florida0.9912.7%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Santa Barbara0.064.8%1st Place
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12.1Unknown School-1.071.1%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Berkeley-0.402.1%1st Place
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12.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.001.4%1st Place
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11.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.862.1%1st Place
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10.2University of California at Santa Barbara-0.513.5%1st Place
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13.66University of California at San Diego-1.500.7%1st Place
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15.33University of California at Davis-2.150.4%1st Place
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16.44Rutgers University-2.830.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arden Rathkopf | 19.8% | 17.1% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Everett McAvoy | 16.5% | 14.6% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Heidi Hicks | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Lara Granucci | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Lemke | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kalea Woodard | 12.7% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Aevyn Jackson | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 2.9% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.5% |
| Noa Brassfield | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Liza Churkov | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 18.1% | 18.1% | 8.1% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 27.0% | 27.3% |
| Terry Nguyen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 8.6% | 18.9% | 54.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.