← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
78.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University2.47+4.00vs Predicted
-
2Connecticut College2.96+1.80vs Predicted
-
3Dartmouth College2.75+1.37vs Predicted
-
4Brown University3.03-0.18vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-0.16vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University2.43-0.78vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College1.89-0.71vs Predicted
-
8Williams College-0.03+2.67vs Predicted
-
9Columbia University1.65-1.87vs Predicted
-
10Wesleyan University0.55-0.31vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Military Academy1.14-2.62vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-0.86vs Predicted
-
13University of Rochester-0.35-1.75vs Predicted
-
14Rochester Institute of Technology-2.06-0.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.0Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
-
3.8Connecticut College2.960.2%1st Place
-
4.37Dartmouth College2.750.2%1st Place
-
3.82Brown University3.030.2%1st Place
-
4.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
-
5.22Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
-
6.29SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
-
10.67Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
-
7.13Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
-
9.69Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
-
8.38U. S. Military Academy1.140.0%1st Place
-
11.14SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
-
11.25University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
-
13.39Rochester Institute of Technology-2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Keally | 10.4% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 18.5% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Weis | 15.1% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 16.8% | 18.6% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Brown | 9.8% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jorge Castro | 1.2% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 21.1% | 20.2% | 6.8% |
| Adam DeVita | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 16.8% | 19.7% | 16.2% | 8.3% | 2.0% |
| Matthew Schmitt | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 16.6% | 18.0% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 11.5% | 16.6% | 22.7% | 24.8% | 7.8% |
| Kelly Chang | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 21.3% | 29.1% | 9.0% |
| Robert Ichiyama | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 74.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.