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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.47+3.93vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+2.64vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.96+0.92vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.03-0.19vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.89+1.60vs Predicted
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6U. S. Military Academy1.14+2.33vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.75-2.77vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.43-2.83vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.23+2.12vs Predicted
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10Wesleyan University0.55-0.30vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-0.35+0.39vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.65-4.87vs Predicted
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13Williams College-0.03-2.36vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-2.06-0.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.93Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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4.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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3.92Connecticut College2.960.2%1st Place
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3.81Brown University3.030.2%1st Place
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6.6SUNY Maritime College1.890.0%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Military Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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4.23Dartmouth College2.750.2%1st Place
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5.17Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.12SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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9.7Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.39University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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7.13Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.64Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.38Rochester Institute of Technology-2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Keally | 10.3% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Brown | 12.7% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 17.8% | 15.9% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 17.4% | 18.9% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schmitt | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Erik Weis | 16.7% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 10.1% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 22.3% | 25.0% | 8.5% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 18.2% | 16.6% | 17.0% | 10.2% | 1.3% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 21.1% | 28.2% | 11.3% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jorge Castro | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 19.4% | 20.7% | 19.7% | 4.7% |
| Robert Ichiyama | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 12.7% | 74.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.