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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.47+3.97vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+2.63vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.96+0.89vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.03-0.18vs Predicted
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5Columbia University1.65+2.17vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.75-1.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy1.14+1.05vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.43-2.87vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.23+2.15vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.89-3.41vs Predicted
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11Williams College-0.03-0.15vs Predicted
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12Wesleyan University0.55-2.39vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.35-1.72vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-2.06-0.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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4.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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3.89Connecticut College2.960.2%1st Place
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3.82Brown University3.030.2%1st Place
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7.17Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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4.46Dartmouth College2.750.2%1st Place
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8.05U. S. Military Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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5.13Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.15SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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6.59SUNY Maritime College1.890.0%1st Place
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10.85Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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9.61Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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13.41Rochester Institute of Technology-2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Keally | 10.0% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Brown | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 18.5% | 15.8% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 17.8% | 19.0% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Erik Weis | 15.1% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schmitt | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 16.4% | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Balk | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 22.8% | 26.0% | 8.4% |
| John Nothacker | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jorge Castro | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 16.9% | 22.8% | 20.6% | 6.3% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 18.5% | 18.8% | 15.3% | 9.1% | 1.1% |
| Kelly Chang | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 22.1% | 28.9% | 9.5% |
| Robert Ichiyama | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 12.6% | 74.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.