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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.56+2.59vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.87+0.96vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.55+2.78vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.98+3.18vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.74+0.48vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.70-2.58vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.74-1.84vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.63+2.74vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.94-1.61vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-1.11+1.82vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy0.51-2.59vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.48-1.43vs Predicted
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13Williams College-0.36-2.80vs Predicted
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14Wesleyan University-1.46-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59Brown University2.560.2%1st Place
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2.96Dartmouth College2.870.3%1st Place
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5.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.550.1%1st Place
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7.18SUNY Maritime College0.980.0%1st Place
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5.48Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
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3.42Brown University2.700.2%1st Place
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5.16Fordham University1.740.1%1st Place
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10.74Rochester Institute of Technology-0.630.0%1st Place
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7.39University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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11.82SUNY Stony Brook-1.110.0%1st Place
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8.41U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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10.57Columbia University-0.480.0%1st Place
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10.2Williams College-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.31Wesleyan University-1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Harding | 19.6% | 17.6% | 16.4% | 16.6% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 25.3% | 23.3% | 19.0% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Morrison | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Liam Murphy | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Colin Keil | 6.6% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Andersen | 20.2% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Stapp | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Hicks | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 15.8% | 19.0% | 17.1% | 13.1% |
| Tyler Rochon | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 16.0% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Tomasz Stefankowski | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 23.6% | 27.5% |
| Michael Danko | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 15.5% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Loren Myers | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 16.9% | 17.9% | 15.3% | 9.9% |
| William Gomez | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 18.2% | 14.3% | 6.4% |
| Kevin Winnie | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 22.2% | 41.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.