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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.56+2.60vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.55+3.66vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.74+2.30vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.98+3.16vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.70-1.59vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.87-2.91vs Predicted
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7Columbia University-0.48+3.35vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.74-2.71vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.94-1.60vs Predicted
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10Williams College-0.36+0.42vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.63-0.03vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy0.51-3.65vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-1.11-1.31vs Predicted
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14Wesleyan University-1.46-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.6Brown University2.560.2%1st Place
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5.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.550.1%1st Place
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5.3Fordham University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.16SUNY Maritime College0.980.0%1st Place
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3.41Brown University2.700.2%1st Place
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3.09Dartmouth College2.870.3%1st Place
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10.35Columbia University-0.480.0%1st Place
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5.29Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.4University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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10.42Williams College-0.360.0%1st Place
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10.97Rochester Institute of Technology-0.630.0%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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11.69SUNY Stony Brook-1.110.0%1st Place
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12.31Wesleyan University-1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Harding | 19.8% | 18.0% | 16.5% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Morrison | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Stapp | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Murphy | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Quinn Andersen | 19.7% | 20.2% | 17.2% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 25.1% | 20.7% | 18.0% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loren Myers | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 17.7% | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Colin Keil | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| William Gomez | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 8.6% |
| Adam Hicks | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 11.4% | 17.1% | 17.8% | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| Michael Danko | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 15.4% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Tomasz Stefankowski | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 17.3% | 24.0% | 25.2% |
| Kevin Winnie | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 20.2% | 41.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.